Research by foreign corporations shows that Vietnam can achieve net zero emissions by 2050, reducing CO2 emissions by 20% and carbon tax.
Power system simulation studies conducted by the global technology group Wärtsilä have shown that electrical systems rely on renewable energy sources, powered by flexible ICE engines and energy storage battery systems that can help Vietnam achieve Net zero (net zero emissions) by the middle of the 21st century, while reducing the cost of electricity generation (LCOE) by 20% when taxes on- bon in the future.
Renewable energy is in focus. Photo: L.Bang
According to the report Reshaping the Energy Industry in Southeast Asia just released this midweek, the results of the study show that the combination of renewable energy and flexible power comes from motors. ICE and its energy storage battery system can reliably meet Vietnam’s strong growth in electricity demand, which has grown by about 10% a year over the past decade – faster than all other countries in the region Southeast Asia.
Wärtsilä has simulated four scenarios for the energy transition in Vietnam to 2050. The first scenario is the normal scenario (BAU) – no limit on emissions from the power sector.
Under this scenario, Vietnam will emit 320 million tons of carbon by 2050, tripling compared to 2020, and achieving Net zero is not feasible.
The study also simulates a 50% Emissions Reduction Scenario – which requires a 50% reduction in emissions by 2050 compared to the BAU scenario. The 80% emission reduction scenario requires an 80% reduction in emissions by 2050 compared to the BAU scenario.
And finally, the scenario Net zero – zero-emission electricity system by 2050.
The simulated scenarios all agree that flexibility, in the form of ICE engines and energy storage batteries, is the key to making renewables the main source of energy. All scenarios suggest adding 7 GW of ICE flexible power capacity by 2030 so that the power system can meet the load demand during peak hours. To achieve Net zero by 2050, Vietnam will need to install a total of 87 GW of ICE power capacity to balance the system.