The national economy is anticipated to enjoy a recovery over the next six months until the growth momentum becomes stronger ahead during the second half of 2022.
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This assessment was made by Alain Cany, chairman of the European Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam (Eurocham), during the “Vietnam Day” event held on November 4 in order to seek greater opportunities for the nation move into the post-COVID-19 pandemic period.
Delegates in attendance at the event, hosted by the Hong Kong Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC), noted that the complicated nature of developments relating to COVID-19 pandemic across the country in late April considerably disrupted supply chains and impacted the production activities of local firms.
These moves have also made Vietnamese economic growth during the third quarter to endure negative growth of 6.17%, whilst GDP growth in the opening nine months of the year reached only 1.42%.
The World Bank (WB) has also lowered its forecast for the country’s economic growth this year to between 2% and 2.5%, a figure much lower than the growth projection of approximately 4.8% made in August.
Despite this, many economists have expressed their belief in the recovery of the Vietnamese economy moving forward, particularly as the country has gradually controlled the pandemic thanks to a range of flexible and effective anti-pandemic measures.
These drastic actions have therefore created favourable conditions in which the production and business activities can flourish.
Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian Economics and managing director at HSBC, revealed that the nation is not likely to become vulnerable to high US$ interest rates due to its strong economic fundamentals and possessing an export-oriented economy.
He analysed that rising energy prices could contribute to pushing up inflation and slowing down the recovery of Vietnamese economic growth, adding that the situation will become more stable in the second half of next year.
Dr. Truong Gia Binh, chairman of FPT Corporation, also pointed out the bright spots in the Vietnamese economic picture, including high export growth, a rise in newly-registered FDI capital, and a positive growth of GDP during the nine-month period.
Dr. Binh added that the Government’s flexible policies regarding its COVID-19 response, digital transformation, and new bailout package to boost economic recovery, as well as the application of artificial intelligence (AI) and advanced technology, are expected to help the national economy bounce back soon.