Fitch Ratings has recently unveiled its forecast for Vietnam’s economic growth in 2024 and 2025. According to the credit rating agency, the robust financial and monetary policies implemented by Vietnam domestically have not only bolstered its own economy but have also provided support to several others.
Fitch Ratings projects a 6.3% economic growth for Vietnam in 2024, followed by an anticipated surge to 7.0% in 2025, underscoring the positive impact of the nation’s fiscal strategies. The agency points out that Vietnam’s medium-term economic fundamentals remain favorable, offering promising prospects for the banking sector.
However, Fitch notes a slowdown in Vietnam’s economic growth to 4.3% in September 2023, attributed to weakened external demand and persistent challenges in the real estate sector.
In response to this economic landscape, on September 11, the National Assembly ratified the Decision on the 2024 Socio-Economic Development Plan. The approved plan sets a GDP growth target of 6-6.5% and aims for an average Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth rate of 4-4.5%. Some members of the National Assembly view these targets as ambitious, but Chairman of the National Assembly’s Economic Committee, Vu Hong Thanh, asserts that such aspirations signal the government’s commitment to achieving growth while maintaining flexibility in implementation.
Rong Viet (VDSC) supports the proposed growth targets, considering them appropriate. This assessment is based on expectations of a moderate recovery in the manufacturing sector, particularly among exporters. Furthermore, investment spending is projected to rise by 13% compared to the annual National Assembly budget plan and by 19% compared to the 2023 estimate. Notably, this does not include the unresolved capital portion of the economic recovery and development program, set to expire in 2024. The overall optimism is further fueled by increased business and consumer confidence stemming from reduced interest rates, fostering a more positive outlook for domestic economic activity in 2023.